How much is ill-health costing the UK economy – and what could be gained by tackling it? A new report by Frontier Economics, commissioned by the Health Innovation Network (HIN), puts a number on the prize: £246 billion in potential productivity gains.

The aim of the project was to quantify the economic cost of ill-health and the value health innovation can bring by addressing ill-health. Our report provides a new perspective on two of the UK Government’s most important missions: kickstarting economic growth and building an NHS fit for the future.  It details the potential for innovation in healthcare to help address the economic impacts of ill-health, by helping people return to work sooner, supporting in-job productivity, and preventing long-term health conditions.

Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary,  said our “landmark study” was evidence of what the NHS could achieve “if we harness the massive potential at our fingertips” and that our research findings would “help inform our mission to build a health service that delivers for patients and contributes to a stronger economy.

What we did:

We developed a bespoke approach for estimating the different benefits from health innovation and a bespoke methodology to estimate both the macroeconomic and condition-specific productivity impacts of ill-health – from top-down modelling of the UK labour market, to bottom-up analysis of specific innovations.

The work also assessed the wider economic benefits – from inward investment in life sciences to improved NHS efficiency and patient wellbeing – and provided a clear framework for how HINs could intervene to unlock value.

What we found:

Innovation is already having an impact – and scaling it could go much further. For example:

• £1.2bn through return-to-work support for musculoskeletal conditions
• £2.3bn from better management of blood pressure and cholesterol
• £459m via AI imaging for faster stroke treatment
• £274m from FeNO testing to diagnose asthma more effectively

Helping 25% of people currently out of work due to ill-health back into employment could be worth £48bn to the UK economy. Meanwhile, reducing ill-health in the NHS workforce alone could return £8.55bn – or 233 million hours.

The impact:

In reaction to our report and ahead of the Spending Review, Wes Streeting said: “We often talk about the challenges associated with health care in this country, but this report shows there are lots of opportunities too if we harness the massive potential at our fingertips. The NHS is uniquely placed to take advantage of innovation, and this landmark study reveals the prize on offer – potential benefits worth £246 billion annually and the ability to free up 233 million hours for our NHS workforce, proving that health innovation isn’t just good for patients, it’s vital for our economy and the taxpayer. By focusing on key conditions like mental health and cardiovascular disease, and embracing AI, telemedicine and genomic research, we can improve patient outcomes while creating high-skilled jobs and attracting global investment.”

Our findings have given the Health Innovation Network a concrete, evidence-led business case to support future planning and investment. The work is now feeding into the development of HINs’ 10-Year Plan, ensuring innovation is focused where it can deliver the greatest return – economically and socially.

Nick Woolley will present the report findings at NHS Confed Expo 2025 on 12 June. 

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